zeb.market.flash. Issue #48: A splendid start into a potentially challenging year
Our overview of current developments in the global banking market
And here is what this issue is all about:
Record market capitalisation of top 100 banks
- Western European (+12.8% QoQ) and U.S. banks (+15.4% QoQ) led the global top 100 banks to a strong overall TSR performance in a bullish market.
- U.S. banks were able to widen the P/B ratio gap to their Western European peers again, despite solid further improvements by the latter (+0.08x QoQ).
ECB might start rate-cutting earlier than the U.S. Fed
- In Q1 24, inflation in Western Europe fell more than expected to 2.8%, while in the U.S. it remained sticky at 3.2% instead of the previously expected 2.9%.
The special assessment by the U.S. FDIC to cover the rescue costs of the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse caused record-low Q4 23 U.S. ROEs.
CRE in turmoil and vulnerability of Western European banks
- High interest rates, “New Work”, and the rise of e-commerce cause significant turbulences in certain asset classes of the commercial real-estate (CRE) market.
- What does this mean for banks that are active in these areas? How exposed and susceptible are Western European banks towards increased risks in CRE and how significant do we expect the impacts to be?
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