Our overview of current developments in the global banking market

With zeb.market.flash, zeb publishes a quarterly, up-to-date overview of the performance of the world’s largest banks.

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Issue 52 | July 10, 2025 | Turbulent quarter ends on a solid note

This issue of our zeb.market.flash gives you a concise overview of the most important developments in the global banking market in Q2 2025.

And here is what this issue is all about:

Robust capital markets despite high volatility

• The global capital markets improved slightly in a turbulent Q2 25 (MSCI World market cap. +1.7% QoQ, TSR +2.7% QoQ) – for the top 100 banks, it was a solid quarter overall (market cap. +4.6% QoQ, TSR +4.8% QoQ).

• Western European banks were able to further increase their price-to-book ratio in Q2 25 (+0.06x QoQ to 1.05x) owing to a strong capital market performance.

• After a weak previous quarter, high profits catapulted the technology sector back to the top of the industry ranking in Q2 25 (TSR +13.1% QoQ).

   

Tariff conflict dampens macroeconomic outlook

• Germany recorded zero growth in Q1 25, while the tariff conflict has clearly dampened the outlook for the USA (GDP Q4 25f: +1.0%) and Western Europe (GDP Q4 25f: +0.8%).

• The euro continued its upward trend against the US dollar in Q2 25 and gained a further +9% QoQ.

• Western European banks reduced their risk provisioning by -2 bp QoQ in Q1 25 – the future positioning remains in focus in light of global uncertainties.

• The short-term trend of slightly rising mortgage rates was directly broken as a result of expected ECB interest rate cuts in April.

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