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Business model analysis in a challenging environment

The financial performance of many regional banks is showing a clearly positive trend as a result of the interest rate turnaround. The macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, however, are deteriorating: Germany is in recession, insolvencies are on the rise, and the ECB has once again cut its key interest rates. Regional banks are therefore under increasing pressure to adapt. Stable business development is only possible if business models are actively scrutinized and adjusted. Business model analysis provides a structured approach to do so and is turning into a key instrument for strategic management. 

Regulatory obligation, strategic sense

Since the 2023 MaRisk amendment, business model analysis has been mandatory for regional banks. It was established back in 2014 by the SREP guidelines as part of supervisory evaluations. BaFin and the Bundesbank have made it an audit focus up until 2027. The analysis is therefore not a voluntary tool, but a regulatory requirement. At the same time, it offers real strategic added value: it helps to identify opportunities, mitigate risks and make fact-based decisions.

Business model analysis gives banks the chance not only to review their business model, but also to actively evolve it –- in a factual, structured and forward-looking manner. 

It creates cross-divisional transparency regarding strengths, weaknesses and success factors, thus promoting a common strategic language in management. 

In addition, it enables fact-based resource management: capital, time and human resources can be channeled more specifically into those business segments that are viable and economically attractive in the long term.

Structured analysis with a clear objective

Business model analysis comprises several stages. First, the strategy, regional focus and business segments are examined. This is followed by an analysis of the business environment, competition monitoring and macroeconomic assessments. In a quantitative analysis, profitability, balance sheet structure and capitalization are evaluated. This is supplemented by a qualitative consideration of the organization and its dependencies. Finally, the financial plan and the strategy’s long-term economic viability are assessed. 

Focus on profitability and future viability

A key objective is to determine whether the business model delivers acceptable returns. The decisive factor is the ratio of return on equity (ROE) to cost of equity (COE). If the ROE is lower than the COE in the long term, there is a structural need for action. Business segment analyses show where capital is being used efficiently and where there is potential to be leveraged. Medium-term planning combines strategy and economic feasibility. This makes business model analysis an effective management tool for viable bank management. 

This article is an abstract of our article in “Bankinformation” magazine, issue 52/2025 (in German). Would you like to learn more on this topic? 

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Benedikt Brandt

Senior Manager

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Lennart Book

Senior Consultant