zeb.market.flash. Issue #46: Rate hike cycle coming to an end
Our overview of current developments in the global banking market
And here is what this issue is all about:
- Global top 100 banks, led by Western European banks, again posted a good TSR performance (+2.9% QoQ) in a difficult overall market (MSCI world: -0.4%).
- The still very large P/B ratio gap between Western European banks (+0.04x QoQ to 0.75x) and their U.S. peers (-0.03x QoQ to 1.10x) has narrowed again.
-0.3% YoY real GDP growth in Q2 2023 in Germany
- Next quarters’ GDP growth rates are expected to remain low, but the restrictive monetary policy of central banks is showing success in reducing inflation.
- Western European banks managed once again to come out on top in terms of profitability in Q2 2023, with an ROE of 12.9% (ex. UBS).
Rate hike cycle coming to an end
- The central banks’ balancing act of tackling inflation without stalling the economy is going into the next round and banks are affected from all sides.
- What are the effects that can be observed in the monetary transmission channels, especially the interest and credit channels? What have been and will be the implications from a banking and business area perspective?
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