European private client business 2024-2026

Economic potential from European private client
business and implications for bank management 

The year 2023 stood out as exceptional for banks across European markets. Business with private clients flourished. This begs the question of what the years to come will bring for banks operating in European private client markets? A continuation of windfall profits, a relapse to levels that prevailed throughout the low yield environment or a completely different scenario? A comprehensive understanding of private client markets, relevant developments, structural differences and market specifics remains paramount.

Capturing the potential rewards of the new era requires efforts in multiple areas critical to success – for ambitious players that draw the right conclusions and act consistently, the markets are challenging but potentially very rewarding.

Key findings of our market analysis

2023: temporary stay in paradise – the rapid increase in market rates combined with lagging rate transmission in private client markets fueled a bumper year with record banking income 

Steadfast island in the storm – despite the challenging environment and a modest decline compared to 2023, 2024–2026 income potentials are expected to be 38% higher than the 2015–2021 levels

Turn of the tide – everyday banking and deposit products have replaced loans as the most important income category on a European level

Each harbor has a unique entrance – income per household and structure of income sources vary widely among markets, with specific local performance driver insights as a prerequisite for success

Value creation ahead – the new income level and mix allows for doubledigit RoCET1 figures and value creation across the private client business 

Hoist the sails – capturing the value creation possibilities requires all hands on deck