zeb.market.flash. Issue #47: Caution is advised despite positive outlook

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Our overview of current developments in the global banking market

With zeb.market.flash, zeb publishes a quarterly, up-to-date overview of the performance of the world’s largest banks.

Click here for the current issue with the following focus topic:
Issue 47 | January 18, 2024 | Caution is advised despite positive outlook

The first chapter analyses the current situation of the banking sector. The next chapter looks at the economic situation and key drivers of the banking business. The last chapter in each issue deals with a special topic in detail.  

And here is what this issue is all about:

Global top 100 banks outperform the market in Q4 23

  • U.S. banks lifted the global top 100 banks with a strong TSR performance of +16.9% QoQ in a bullish market environment (MSCI world: +6.9%).
  • ROE of Western European banks fell behind U.S. and BRICS banks in Q3 23 due to UK banks, which accounted for 4 of the 5 lowest TSR performers in Q4 23.

Rate cut anticipations, dim economic outlook and decreasing inflation 

  • A technical recession is expected in Germany at the end of 2023, whereas in-flation fell faster than anticipated in Q4 23 (Western Europe: 3.3%; U.S.: 3.2%).
  • Yield curves in the euro area and the U.S. shift downwards in Q4 23 as market participants anticipate early rate cuts in the first half of 2024.

2024 – transitional year to a new equilibrium

  • Global drivers of structural change, elections around the world, slow economic recovery and expected rate cuts are likely to make 2024 a transitional year.
  • What will be the effects on the short and the long end of the yield curve? What are the implications on revenues from maturity transformation, the loan and deposit business? 
  • Or in sum: how will the year 2024 turn out for banks?

 

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Further readings

zeb is a thought leader in the financial services sector. Below you will find a selection of our current publications.