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zeb.market.flash #51: Unstable markets and transatlantic divergences

Our overview of current developments in the global banking market

With zeb.market.flash, zeb publishes a quarterly, up-to-date overview of the performance of the world’s largest banks.

Click here for the current issue with the following focus topic:
Issue 51 | April 10, 2025 |  Unstable markets and transatlantic divergences

This issue of our zeb.market.flash gives you a concise overview of the most important developments in the global banking market in Q1 2025.

 

And here is what this issue is all about:

West. European banks defy

  • In Q1 25, the global capital markets experienced a dip (MSCI World market cap. -6.4% QoQ, TSR -5.8% QoQ). 

  • Western European banks (TSR +20.8% QoQ, USA -5.2% QoQ) offset the capital market performance of the global top 100 banks (TSR +1.8% QoQ). 

  • At the end of Q1 25, Western European banks achieved a price-to-book ratio (P/B ratio) of 1.00x for the first time since Q3 17.

  • If the US tariff policy presented on April 2, 2025, materializes, further significant declines are to be expected on the capital markets worldwide.

German borrowing package drives up EUR int. rates

  • Inflation in Germany is expected to rise slightly to 2.6% YoY in Q1 25. As to GDP, analysts expect a shift of -0.3% YoY – the seventh GDP decline in a row.  

  • The inverted yield curve in the euro area normalized in Q1 25 after a long time in light of increasing returns at the “long end”. 

  • Banks are already adapting to the new interest rate environment. They are raising their mortgage interest rates and thus end the short-lived downward trend. Deposit interest rates continue to fall in line with the ECB’s expected interest rate cuts.

 

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Projektbeschreibung

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Zielsetzung

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Further readings

zeb is a thought leader in the financial services sector. Below you will find a selection of our current publications.

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Bitpanda
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