zeb.market.flash. Issue #47: Caution is advised despite positive outlook
Our overview of current developments in the global banking market
And here is what this issue is all about:
Global top 100 banks outperform the market in Q4 23
- U.S. banks lifted the global top 100 banks with a strong TSR performance of +16.9% QoQ in a bullish market environment (MSCI world: +6.9%).
- ROE of Western European banks fell behind U.S. and BRICS banks in Q3 23 due to UK banks, which accounted for 4 of the 5 lowest TSR performers in Q4 23.
Rate cut anticipations, dim economic outlook and decreasing inflation
- A technical recession is expected in Germany at the end of 2023, whereas in-flation fell faster than anticipated in Q4 23 (Western Europe: 3.3%; U.S.: 3.2%).
- Yield curves in the euro area and the U.S. shift downwards in Q4 23 as market participants anticipate early rate cuts in the first half of 2024.
2024 – transitional year to a new equilibrium
- Global drivers of structural change, elections around the world, slow economic recovery and expected rate cuts are likely to make 2024 a transitional year.
- What will be the effects on the short and the long end of the yield curve? What are the implications on revenues from maturity transformation, the loan and deposit business?
- Or in sum: how will the year 2024 turn out for banks?
You don't want to miss an issue and receive the zeb.market.flash by e-mail at the beginning of each quarter? Sign up here for our zeb.market.flash newsletter.
